Regional european genetic ancestry predicts type I interferon level and risk of severe viral infection.

BACKGROUND: Viral infection outcomes vary widely between individuals, ranging from mild symptoms to severe organ failure and death, and it is clear that host genetic factors play a role in this variability. Type I interferon (IFN) is a critical anti-viral cytokine, and we have previously noted differences in type I IFN levels between world populations. METHODS: In this study, we investigate the interrelationship between regional European genetic ancestry, type I IFN levels, and severe viral infection outcomes. RESULTS: In cohorts of European ancestry lupus patients living in Europe, we noted higher IFN in the Northwestern populations as compared to Southeastern populations. In an independent cohort of European ancestry lupus patients from the United States with varying proportional regional European genetic admixture, we observed the same Northwest vs. Southeast European ancestry IFN gradient. We developed a model to predict type I IFN level based on regional European ancestry (AUC = 0.73, p = 6.1e-6). Examining large databases containing serious viral outcomes data, we found that lower predicted IFN in the corresponding European country was significantly correlated with increased viral infection fatality rate, including COVID-19, viral hepatitis, and HIV [Correlation coefficients: -0.79 (p = 4e-2), -0.94 (p = 6e-3), and -0.96 (p = 8e-2) respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: This association between predicted type I IFN level and viral outcome severity suggests a potential causal relationship, as greater intrinsic type I IFN is beneficial in host defense against viruses. Genetic testing could provide insight into individual and population level risk of fatality due to viruses prior to infection, across a wide range of viral pathogens.

Interferon pathway lupus risk alleles modulate risk of death from acute COVID-19.

Type I interferon (IFN) is critical in our defense against viral infections. Increased type I IFN pathway activation is a genetic risk factor for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and a number of common risk alleles contribute to the high IFN trait. We hypothesized that these common gain-of-function IFN pathway alleles may be associated with protection from mortality in acute COVID-19. We studied patients admitted with acute COVID-19 (756 European-American and 398 African-American ancestry). Ancestral backgrounds were analyzed separately, and mortality after acute COVID-19 was the primary outcome. In European-American ancestry, we found that a haplotype of interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) and alleles of protein kinase cGMP-dependent 1 (PRKG1) were associated with mortality from COVID-19. Interestingly, these were much stronger risk factors in younger patients (OR = 29.2 for PRKG1 in ages 45-54). Variants in the IRF7 and IRF8 genes were associated with mortality from COVID-19 in African-American subjects, and these genetic effects were more pronounced in older subjects. Combining genetic information with blood biomarker data such as C-reactive protein, troponin, and D-dimer resulted in significantly improved predictive capacity, and in both ancestral backgrounds the risk genotypes were most relevant in those with positive biomarkers (OR for death between 14 and 111 in high risk genetic/biomarker groups). This study confirms the critical role of the IFN pathway in defense against COVID-19 and viral infections, and supports the idea that some common SLE risk alleles exert protective effects in antiviral immunity.

Interferon pathway lupus risk alleles modulate risk of death from acute COVID-19.

Type I interferon (IFN) is critical in our defense against viral infections. Increased type I IFN pathway activation is a genetic risk factor for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and a number of common risk alleles contribute to the high IFN trait. We hypothesized that these common gain-of-function IFN pathway alleles may be associated with protection from mortality in acute COVID-19. We studied patients admitted with acute COVID-19 (756 European-American and 398 African-American ancestry). Ancestral backgrounds were analyzed separately, and mortality after acute COVID-19 was the primary outcome. In European-American ancestry, we found that a haplotype of interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) and alleles of protein kinase cGMP-dependent 1 (PRKG1) were associated with mortality from COVID-19. Interestingly, these were much stronger risk factors in younger patients (OR=29.2 for PRKG1 in ages 45-54). Variants in the IRF7 and IRF8 genes were associated with mortality from COVID-19 in African-American subjects, and these genetic effects were more pronounced in older subjects. Combining genetic information with blood biomarker data such as C-reactive protein, troponin, and D-dimer resulted in significantly improved predictive capacity, and in both ancestral backgrounds the risk genotypes were most relevant in those with positive biomarkers (OR for death between 14 and 111 in high risk genetic/biomarker groups). This study confirms the critical role of the IFN pathway in defense against COVID-19 and viral infections, and supports the idea that some common SLE risk alleles exert protective effects in anti-viral immunity. BACKGROUND: We find that a number of IFN pathway lupus risk alleles significantly impact mortality following COVID-19 infection. These data support the idea that type I IFN pathway risk alleles for autoimmune disease may persist in high frequency in modern human populations due to a benefit in our defense against viral infections. TRANSLATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE: We develop multivariate prediction models which combine genetics and known biomarkers of severity to result in greatly improved prediction of mortality in acute COVID-19. The specific associated alleles provide some clues about key points in our defense against COVID-19.